Prospective study of herpes simplex virus, cytomegalovirus, and the risk of future myocardial infarction and stroke.

BACKGROUND It has been hypothesized that infection with either herpes simplex virus (HSV) or cytomegalovirus (CMV) is associated with atherogenesis. However, prospective data relating evidence of prior exposure to these agents with risks of future myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke are sparse. METHODS AND RESULTS In a prospective, nested case-control study of apparently healthy men, the baseline prevalence of antibodies directed against HSV or CMV was similar among 643 men who subsequently developed a first MI or thromboembolic stroke and among 643 age- and smoking-matched men who remained free of reported vascular disease over a 12-year follow-up period. Specifically, the relative risks for future MI and stroke were 0.94 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.2) for HSV seropositivity and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.6 to 0.9) for CMV seropositivity, after adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors. These findings were not materially altered in comparisons of early versus late events or in analyses stratified by smoking status. There was no evidence of association between HSV or CMV antibodies and plasma concentration of C-reactive protein, a marker of inflammation that predicts vascular risk in this cohort. CONCLUSIONS Among apparently healthy middle-aged men, IgG antibodies directed against HSV or CMV do not appear to be a marker for increased atherothrombotic risk. The observed possible inverse relationship of CMV with MI and stroke was unexpected and may well be due to chance, because the direction of association is not compatible with the a priori hypothesis based on proposed biological mechanisms or previous cross-sectional and retrospective data.